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canal is a red herring

The quid pro quo for Ortega's shocking recognition of Ossetia and Abkhazian independence was a visit from a high ranking diplomat. Among the accords signed was NEW MILITARY AID. While the diplomat downplayed this, those in the know expect that the sandinista army will get new weapons shipments.

http://www.elnuevodiario.com.ni/politica/27809

The opposition is not sanguine about what those weapons will be used for. Coupled with Lenin Cerna's certain command of the turbas and Ubeda shock troops, and it does not stretch the imagination that the repression will get more severe.

Conversing with friends the conventional wisdom is that Ortega will go for broke at some point soon. From what I saw at Leon, I can tell you that there will be a big provocation that will be used as pretext.

People are getting radicalized. The anti-sandinista opposition has said it will not let itself get cowed or beaten by the turbas.

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