War in Nicaragua Increasingly Likely

peterchristopher's picture

I spoke with one of my local friends in Nicaragua over the phone recently, a poor man who doesn't read the papers. He told me war is coming to Nicaragua.

I wrote about how re"elect"ing Daniel was a recipe for disaster but that I thought the Nicaraguans would do it for their passion for drama (pleito).

Now things are playing out: increasing consolidation of power, mob-justice (Sandinista mobs have already been compensated by money and are continuing to be compensated also by the privilege of being able to rob properties of those who do not pay enough protection money).

The Supreme Court and Legislative are sufficiently well-controlled and well-paid by the Ortegas, so that they have essentially made clear that the Ortegas will not leave the absolute control of the country. The Ortegas continue to amass more and more wealth, at this point including a large portion of the electric utility and some media and dozens of smaller businesses.

Any opposition is threatened; any opposition told to leave -- contrary opinions not welcomed: http://www.nrc.nl/international/article2412277.ece/Dutch_MEP_thrown_out_...

There may not yet be much hope by those outside the Sandinista mob, but there is frustration. If some internal or external party turns Ortegas shadow back on him and one or more of them return to the earth, the frustration might inspire what might be felt as hope, and the one large Sandinista mob will be split into warring factions as the international community comes in to support the semi-factioned non-Sandinista opposition.

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Hi Roger

I've had both good and bad experiences in Nicaragua, as I'm sure you have as well.  I listen to, and wish the best to, those who see the country with rose-colored glasses, but I also listen to those who see underlying cultural issues that are true and relevant to any who live in, visit, or do business with Nicaragua.

Do you live full-time in Nicaragua now?  If I remember correctly, like most who post on this and other Nicaragua sites, you were living in the USA recently.

My apologies that I asked an overly loaded rhetorical question to you in a previous post on this page.

Nicaragua may have a new twist in the upcoming election

I have no idea if there will be war, and I certainly hope not for the sake of all the good people of Nicaragua. But, I'm thinking that Daniel Ortega may have a shake up coming his way and his cadre may be nursing a few embarrassing wounds very soon.

I know the popular thought is that he will be re-elected in 2012, but I have a feeling that some of his "humanitarian" efforts may come under scrutiny. I wonder how this will play out with one of his key American propagandists?

What would happen to any sites and/or news sources about Nicaragua if Ortega's policies were questioned to the extent that it had a major effect on his re-election? Would they change their tune to fit in with a new administration who may not be so friendly? Would the new administration chase them out of the country? Or, would they allow their hair-brained ideologies to continue to represent the Sandinista platform? This should be an interesting time in history!

it's not my subject matter

Hey, man. Insulting and intimidating? Thats not my intention here. If i've done that let me know. I apologize if i came off that way.
I do find i react with a bit perplexity and in an uncomfortable way with some of the claims you have made about how bad Nicaragua is. Some of your points may be valid and i would be interested in pursuing some of the validity but i find it difficult and as a non starter with some assumptions you try to lay down as facts . I sense that you've had a bad personal experience in Nicaragua but it reality is a beautiful country with a lot of beautiful people. Its not perfect but that might be why it is so interesting and rewarding to learn and experience what is different. Also, it just might not be for everybody but i know a great number who love it.
If you ask me, the subject "War in In Nicaragua more likely" does kinda put a spin on the matter. Then, when you actually read what you're referring to it seems a little out there as a real possibility or credibility. Although, I wouldn't doubt it that people do feel this way, it can be waste of a good discussion to start to critique someone who makes claims mostly based on emotion and opinion because they are not interested in discussing but rather making their point that so and so is bad and the worst is always coming.

I respect you and like many of your post but feel the need to clarify some of the claims you attribute to Nicaragua. That's all.

What?

I no expert in current Nicaraguan affairs, but you're really stretching it. You said, "I also never said that war is coming - again trying to put words in my mouth" when in your original post, you quote "He told me war is coming to Nicaragua." If you didn't want to make the case for "war is coming" to Nicaragua, you did a terrible job of it.

I watched through the video, and though I'm fully aware of the civil wars Nicaragua has suffered, I've seen more dangerous clashes in Paris, France; Athens, Greece; and many other democratic nations. I witnessed personally the breakup of a demonstration in Los Angeles that was far more traumatizing.

You talked about other people airing their dirty laundry. I'm afraid you're guilty of what you claim to condemn.

negative spin?

Hi Roger,

I don't think I'm putting a spin on the information.

I tell it like it is, and many who would rather not see their dirty laundry aired try to intimidate me or insult me. Are you one of them?

Peter

more USA imperialism more likely

USA to increase imperial wars in Afghanistan/Pakistan, Colombia/Venezuela, Iraq/Iran, more likely...
I got this from my own research on news i read on the internet.

Why all the negative spin on Nicaragua? Times are tough for sure, but its all a bit exagerated when you look at the hard facts. The world economic crisis is definitely being felt in Nicaragua as well but on a global scale Nicaraguans are probably much more stable than the majority of other developed and developing countries when in comes to their ability to be self sustaining with their own resources. In comparison it is much less populated and historically it has always been a agriculturaly rich and productive country.
The general public does not want war in Nicaragua. In fact, Ortega to this day still assures even his die hard supporters that there will not be another militrary draft, that those days are over. The mandatory military draft was the reason he lost the 1990 election. Maintaining peace would actually benefit Ortega's handling of stability in Nicaragua.
Is there abuse of power? Corruption and despotism always prevails in Nicaragua as well as in most other countries. However, you have to acknowledge that atleast he plays dirty politics in a "democratic" clountry. Just like bush stole 2001 and the Supremes court voted in his favor, not much different here...

by the way, Bricenojd points were totally valid.

my two cents

Sources, etc.

Hi Bricenojd

Yes I accurately acknowledged my sources. I never said that the source I mentioned does not keep informed, however. You're either trying to put words into my mouth, or you falsely believe that the written word in Nicaragua is more informative than the spoken word.

I also never said that war is coming - again trying to put words in my mouth. I said it is increasingly likely. I also described the scenario in which it would likely happen if it does happen. You yourself know that there are about four or five million Nicaraguans who all have scores to settle with each other and could see the benefit of six or twelve months of cover to lay issues at rest (they believe this would be effective).

Anyhow, you just watch Mr. and Mrs. As long as their hearts keep ticking, there is probably sufficient glue to keep the "social fabric" (tourniquet) from ripping. But if someone from the inside or the outside takes one (and certainly if both) of them out, all bets are off: pack your bags and head for Peñas Blancas.

Hi Cory,

Did you mean that I was right or that Bricenojd is right? From what I hear, the Nicaraguan countryside is becoming increasingly desperate and unsafe for locals and guests - I definitely would advise against riding a bicycle through the Nicraguan countryside alone, on roads where five years ago I would have said it is fine - especially if one has been in the country long enough to have people who (with or without reason) wouldn't mind taking advantage of them.

Here's a video of the latest rally. Still mostly all words luckily, but the paid Sandinista mercenaries you see at the end will be happy to escalate when given the word. In case you can't see the video, click here.

Is this correct?

Bricenojd,

I am confused, you mean to tell me that EVERYTHING I have read about Nicaragua being on the edge of war and free speech being halted is just a load of &*%^? From all the blog postings on different sites (well other than the ones about saving the children) all contradict what you are saying.

This prompted me to contact my family in Nicaragua and guess what, you are right! (oh, yes they can read, one is even a school teacher and hates the current government) Yes there are some bad apples but as a whole nothing has changed in 25 years and nothing ever will.

War is Nicaragua is extremely unlikely

How does a man who does not read the newspapers or keep informed know war is coming? Is that what you base your sources on?

War is by any means extremely unlikely in Nicaragua. The opposing faction represented by Eduardo Montealegre, who were robbed of the municipal elections have been staging peaceful civil unrest in the form of marches. The sandinista's response to this has been to program their own not so friendly marches on the same day. However, to boldly claim that war is coming is a ridiculous statement considering the military in Nicaragua is strongly controlled by the government, and the opposing faction would go to extreme ends to prevent any armed conflict.

The opposition is threatened but there continue to be beacons of light who continue to fight for the truth. Programs that air regularly in the media such as Esta Semana by Carlos Fernando Chamorro shed the truth in all issues without the government preventing it.

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