War in Nicaragua Increasingly Likely
I spoke with one of my local friends in Nicaragua over the phone recently, a poor man who doesn't read the papers. He told me war is coming to Nicaragua.
I wrote about how re"elect"ing Daniel was a recipe for disaster but that I thought the Nicaraguans would do it for their passion for drama (pleito).
Now things are playing out: increasing consolidation of power, mob-justice (Sandinista mobs have already been compensated by money and are continuing to be compensated also by the privilege of being able to rob properties of those who do not pay enough protection money).
The Supreme Court and Legislative are sufficiently well-controlled and well-paid by the Ortegas, so that they have essentially made clear that the Ortegas will not leave the absolute control of the country. The Ortegas continue to amass more and more wealth, at this point including a large portion of the electric utility and some media and dozens of smaller businesses.
Any opposition is threatened; any opposition told to leave -- contrary opinions not welcomed: http://www.nrc.nl/international/article2412277.ece/Dutch_MEP_thrown_out_...
There may not yet be much hope by those outside the Sandinista mob, but there is frustration. If some internal or external party turns Ortegas shadow back on him and one or more of them return to the earth, the frustration might inspire what might be felt as hope, and the one large Sandinista mob will be split into warring factions as the international community comes in to support the semi-factioned non-Sandinista opposition.